Record Deliveries and Growing Energy Storage Business
Tesla will release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on July 22. This earnings report is drawing significant attention not only for its delivery figures but also for whether profitability can keep pace with growth. According to the latest data, Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the April to June period, a 25% year-over-year increase and the highest second-quarter delivery total in the company’s history. During the same quarter, Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles, meaning deliveries exceeded production by approximately 28,000 units, successfully reducing inventory accumulated in the first quarter.
In the energy storage sector, Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh in the second quarter, a 40% increase from 9.6 GWh in the same period last year, indicating continued expansion in its energy storage business. However, market focus remains on the profitability of Tesla’s automotive segment. With record deliveries, the quality of earnings and whether profitability can rise in tandem has become a critical concern.
Wide Revenue Estimates and Uncertain Profit Outlook
Analysts’ revenue estimates for Tesla’s second quarter show significant divergence, ranging from $22.3 billion to $29 billion, with a median estimate of approximately $25.9 billion, representing about 15% growth from $22.5 billion in the same period last year. Non-GAAP earnings per share estimates also vary widely, from $0.27 to $0.74, with a median of $0.53, a 33% increase from $0.40 in the second quarter of 2025. Deutsche Bank offered a more conservative estimate, projecting earnings per share at $0.36.
Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was around 12.5% in the first quarter. If this level can be maintained in the second quarter, it may help alleviate market concerns about profitability. However, if gross margins decline, it could suggest Tesla has adopted pricing strategies to sustain delivery growth, potentially impacting overall profitability. Additionally, regulatory credit revenue continues to shrink. Tesla recorded $439 million in regulatory credit sales in the second quarter of 2025, down over 50% from the previous year. With the U.S. federal EV tax credit set to expire on September 30, 2025, this revenue stream is expected to diminish further.
Shareholders Shift Focus to Long-Term Plans
Through the Say Technologies platform, Tesla collected 425 questions from shareholders by July 20, involving approximately 1,710 participants and 8.6 million shares. The two questions with the highest shareholder representation focused on the “production progress of Optimus Gen 3” and the “primary constraints on expanding Robotaxi operations,” each representing about 5.3 to 5.4 million shares. This indicates significant interest from major shareholders in Tesla’s long-term plans. However, the most upvoted question, with 732 votes representing 1.5 million shares, was: “Tesla has missed short-term Robotaxi targets in three consecutive earnings reports. What are the obstacles to progress?”
Options market data suggests investors are pricing in a potential 7.6% swing in Tesla’s stock price following the earnings report, reflecting market uncertainty about the results. Analysts note that Tesla’s stock performance in recent years has been closely tied to long-term projects such as Robotaxi and Optimus. This earnings report will test whether Tesla can continue advancing these innovative initiatives beyond its traditional automotive business, reinforcing its positioning as a technology company.
