Nanjing University Study: Recycled Materials from China’s Electric Vehicles to Become Key Metal Supply Source by 2050

Recycled Materials Show Significant Supply Potential, but Elemental Differences Remain

A research team from Nanjing University conducted a long-term assessment of China’s electric vehicle recycling industry, covering trends from 2010 to 2050. The study highlights that as sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to grow, the volume of retired batteries will increase substantially, positioning recycled materials as a primary supply source for critical raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur, graphite, and copper. However, the recycling potential and market trends vary significantly among different elements, with some rare earth metals potentially facing supply shortages.

The research team’s modeling estimates suggest that China’s electric vehicle recycling industry is highly likely to become a major supply hub for multiple critical materials in the future. As the number of retired batteries rises, the proportion of manufacturing demand met by recycled materials is expected to increase significantly. Nevertheless, the study also warns that the recycling system may encounter severe capacity and processing bottlenecks, necessitating improvements in related technologies and regulations.

Policy-Driven Recycling Rate Targets: EVs to Account for 60% of New Car Sales by 2030

The Chinese government has been actively promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry and has set clear targets. According to official plans, the proportion of electric vehicles in new car sales is expected to rise from the current 45% to 60% by 2030, further expanding the number of electric vehicles in use and the scale of retired batteries. Additionally, the government aims to increase the recycling rate of certain battery elements from the current approximately 40% to at least 98% to enhance resource circularity.

To ensure the effective operation of the recycling system, China has implemented a "battery passport" system, which requires tracking the chemical composition of each battery and channeling retired batteries into officially authorized recycling networks. However, the research team notes that China currently lacks mandatory requirements for new batteries to contain a certain proportion of recycled materials, and the absence of end-use regulations may impact the actual utilization rate of recycled materials.

Battery Degradation and Battery-Swapping Models Expand Recycling Base

The study specifically analyzes the impact of battery degradation on the recycling system. In high-intensity usage scenarios for commercial vehicles, batteries often lose usable capacity before the vehicle is retired, necessitating premature replacement. Coupled with China’s widespread adoption of battery-swapping stations, the total number of batteries in circulation is expected to increase further, expanding the base of batteries awaiting recycling. The research team states that this will accelerate the supply scale of recycled materials but may also exacerbate processing bottlenecks.

The research team established four technological evolution scenarios, including solid-state lithium batteries, sodium batteries, and low-rare-earth motors, among other development pathways. Model projections indicate that even as the market share of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) gradually declines, sales of battery electric vehicles will continue to grow until 2050, further driving up the number of retired batteries. The study emphasizes that China must promptly establish more comprehensive recycling regulations and technical standards to ensure a stable supply of critical materials and address potential capacity challenges in the future.

Recycled Materials Show Significant Supply Potential, but Elemental Differences Remain

Policy-Driven Recycling Rate Targets: EVs to Account for 60% of New Car Sales by 2030

Battery Degradation and Battery-Swapping Models Expand Recycling Base

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