Wind and Solar Capacity Break Records as Nuclear Progress Lags
China’s wind and solar power capacity has continued to exceed national targets, achieving the 2030 combined goal of 1,200 GW in 2024—six years ahead of schedule. By the end of 2025, China’s combined wind and solar capacity reached 1,842 GW, surpassing the original target by 642 GW. Wind power capacity stood at 640 GW, while solar capacity reached 1,202 GW, representing growth of 127% and 375%, respectively, since 2020.
In contrast, nuclear power capacity has fallen short of targets for five consecutive years. In 2020, China’s nuclear capacity was 50 GW, missing the 58 GW target by 8 GW. By 2025, nuclear capacity reached 62 GW, still 8 GW short of the 70 GW goal, achieving only 89% of the target. China’s 2020 wind power target was 210 GW, but actual capacity reached 282 GW, exceeding the goal by 72 GW. The solar target of 110 GW was surpassed by 143 GW, reaching 253 GW.
In 2025, newly added wind capacity contributed approximately 282 TWh of annual generation, while solar added 414 TWh, totaling 696 TWh—54 times the 13 TWh from new nuclear capacity that year. From 2022 to 2025, wind and solar additions generated a combined 1,912 TWh annually, compared to just 73 TWh from nuclear, a ratio of 26 to 1. Experts note that wind and solar capacity have adopted a scaled industrial production model, whereas nuclear remains dependent on a limited number of large-scale projects, making progress vulnerable to delays in individual phases.
Global Leader in Nuclear Construction, Yet Delivery Capacity Remains a Key Bottleneck
China currently has the world’s largest nuclear reactor construction program and continues to approve new units, with domestic designs such as the Hualong One reactor gradually being deployed. However, the gap between nuclear capacity targets and actual delivery highlights structural issues between approval and operation. Experts observe that while China has raised targets following wind and solar overachievement, no adjustments have been made to nuclear targets despite repeated shortfalls, reflecting differing policy approaches and execution challenges.
Nuclear construction progress is constrained by its long, sequential engineering process, where delays in any phase—from civil construction and equipment installation to testing, fuel loading, and grid connection—can impact the entire timeline. In comparison, wind and solar capacity benefit from factory-based production and large-scale parallel construction, where delays in individual projects do not affect nationwide progress. Additionally, while China’s nuclear sector relies on domestic designs, the simultaneous development of multiple reactor models limits the benefits of standardization, further slowing delivery.
Despite expanding approvals for nuclear projects, operational capacity growth remains far below that of wind and solar. China’s 2030 nuclear capacity target is 110 GW, but current progress suggests uncertainty in meeting this goal. Experts argue that improving nuclear delivery capacity would require several consecutive years of high-volume reactor completions using a standardized domestic design while reducing construction timeline variability. Although China leads globally in nuclear construction scale, its actual delivery capacity still requires significant improvement.
Wind and Solar Expansion Faces Grid and Energy Storage Challenges
China’s rapid growth in wind and solar capacity has driven energy structure transformation, but grid absorption, energy storage, demand flexibility, and curtailment issues are emerging as major bottlenecks. Experts recommend that policy planning should be based on actual delivery capacity rather than targets, with wind and solar projections grounded in manufacturing and installation capacity, while nuclear forecasts should rely on the progress and risk assessment of ongoing projects.
From 2022 to 2025, newly added wind and solar capacity generated a combined 1,912 TWh annually, equivalent to the output of nearly 70 standard nuclear reactors. As wind and solar capacity continues to expand, the flexibility and stability of the power system will face greater challenges. Experts emphasize that future energy policies must balance capacity growth with grid capacity to ensure the effective utilization of renewable energy.
