ACT’s 2045 Net Zero Target at Risk: Expert Model Shows Current Policies May Only Electrify 70% of Fleet

Transport Decarbonization Becomes Biggest Challenge to Net Zero; ACT Strategy Criticized as 'All Talk, Little Action'

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Government released its Climate Change Strategy 2026-36 and its first Action Plan in 2026, setting a clear net zero emissions target for 2045. However, a new model analysis by Ben Elliston, Chair of the ACT branch of the Australian Electric Vehicle Association (AEVA) and an energy systems expert at the University of New South Wales, suggests that current policies may fail to deliver on this promise. The model projects that by 2045, approximately 30% of the ACT’s vehicle fleet will still consist of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with residual transport emissions reaching 450,000 tonnes of CO2 annually—ten times higher than the net zero scenario outlined in the strategy.

The ACT Government acknowledges in its strategy that transport emissions account for over 60% of the territory’s total carbon footprint, making it the largest source of emissions. Yet, the measures proposed to address this are deemed insufficient. Elliston points out that while the strategy emphasizes promoting public transport, cycling infrastructure, and other alternative transport modes, Australia’s historical efforts to shift transportation modes have largely underperformed. Additionally, urban planning adjustments take decades to yield significant emissions reductions, making it unlikely to have a substantial impact by 2045. Current ACT policies primarily incentivize electric vehicle (EV) adoption through new vehicle subsidies and differentiated registration fees, but these measures have limited effect on overall fleet emissions.

Slow Fleet Turnover Leaves Residual Emissions as Major Obstacle

Elliston’s model is based on several key assumptions: an annual scrappage rate of 5% for ICE vehicles, no scrappage of EVs until 2035 (with a 2% scrappage rate thereafter), and the federal government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard targets through 2029. Under this scenario, EVs are projected to make up only 70% of the ACT’s vehicle fleet by 2045, falling short of the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) forecast of 80% by 2050. Elliston emphasizes that the average lifespan of vehicles exceeds 15 years, meaning most ICE vehicles sold in 2026 will still be on the road by 2040. Even if the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles were banned entirely, fleet emissions would struggle to reach net zero by 2045.

The ACT strategy plans to phase out all fossil fuel vehicles between 2040 and 2045, but Elliston criticizes this goal as “unrealistic.” He argues that current policies fail to accelerate the retirement of ICE vehicles, leading to residual transport emissions in 2045 that far exceed net zero thresholds. The model shows that relying solely on new vehicle electrification would leave residual emissions at 450,000 tonnes, whereas the strategy’s net zero scenario allows for only around 45,000 tonnes. This gap underscores the need for the ACT Government to adopt more aggressive measures to close the policy deficit.

Experts Recommend Expanding Used Vehicle Policies to Boost Fleet Efficiency

Elliston proposes several policy recommendations, stressing the need for the government to broaden its focus beyond new vehicles to include incentives for the used vehicle market. He notes that improving the average fuel efficiency of the existing fleet by 4% annually could halve residual emissions by 2045. An 8% annual improvement could achieve net zero even with approximately 150,000 ICE vehicles remaining, provided the fleet-wide average fuel economy reaches 1.6 liters per 100 kilometers. Currently, ACT’s vehicle registration fees include a carbon emissions component, but Elliston argues that the policy’s impact is limited, as consumers often overlook long-term operating costs.

To accelerate fleet efficiency improvements, Elliston suggests strengthening the differential vehicle duty scheme to cover used vehicles and using financial incentives to encourage dealers to import more high-efficiency used vehicles, including EVs, plug-in hybrids, and hybrid electric vehicles. Such measures could expedite the removal of high-emission older vehicles from the ACT, redirecting them to other states while improving the overall efficiency of the local fleet. He emphasizes that the 2045 net zero target does not require the complete elimination of ICE vehicles but rather a comprehensive improvement in fleet efficiency to reduce residual emissions to acceptable levels.

The ACT’s current strategy relies too heavily on “new vehicle electrification” and “natural fleet turnover,” overlooking the decarbonization potential of the used vehicle market. Elliston warns that without timely policy adjustments, the ACT risks missing critical opportunities for emissions reduction, and its 2045 net zero target could become nothing more than empty rhetoric.

ACT’s 2045 Net Zero Target at Risk of Falling Short? Expert Model Reveals Current Policies May Only Electrify 70% of Fleet

Transport Decarbonization Becomes Biggest Challenge to Net Zero; ACT Strategy Criticized as 'All Talk, Little Action'

Slow Fleet Turnover Leaves Residual Emissions as Major Obstacle

Experts Recommend Expanding Used Vehicle Policies to Boost Fleet Efficiency

Comments